New research commissioned by Royal Schiphol Group, which operates Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport, has concluded it must cut carbon emissions by at least 30% below 2019 levels before 2030 – compared to the national ambition of 9% – to meet climate targets aligning with the Paris Agreement. The Group commissioned two studies, one by the Netherlands Aerospace Centre (NLR), the other by sustainability research body CE Delft, to help establish what actions would be needed to contain the airport’s CO2 emissions within Paris parameters. Options proposed for Schiphol, one of Europe’s biggest air hubs, included further development of new technology, rapid upscaling of sustainable aviation fuel and “ambitious” demand management focusing on long-haul flights, premium class travel and private flights. The research also concluded that a net zero target for a specific year was insufficient to achieve decarbonisation goals and highlighted the need for ongoing incremental improvements.

“Given the strong international nature of aviation, it is essential that the polluter pays,” commented Royal Schiphol Group on the conclusions of the studies. “A strengthened national and international policy is needed.”

Based on the two reports, the group has recommended a package of remedial initiatives headlined by replacement of the Dutch air passenger tax with a distance-based tax targeting long-haul flights, which produce aviation’s highest CO2 emissions, and taxes on business class and private flights, with all takings to be reinvested in the Dutch aviation sector to assist its transition from fossil fuels.

Royal Schiphol also called for a broadening of the EU Emissions Trading System to include intercontinental flights, which are currently exempt, along with a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in Europe to prevent carbon leakage, and it endorsed a global kerosene tax and SAF blending obligations, to be overseen by ICAO.

The Schiphol recommendations follow a controversial decision last year in which the airport, mirroring the ambitions of its biggest shareholder, the Netherlands government, announced it would progressively cap the number of flights as a measure to reduce aircraft noise around the hub and beneath flight paths. KLM, the national and most affected airline, and IATA, on behalf of other operators, immediately launched court action to block the plan. They achieved temporary deferral of the ruling, a decision which was quickly overturned on appeal. But then the government suspended the plan, despite continued argument by the airport that flight restrictions would still be needed to contain noise and reduce emissions.

The report by the Netherlands Aerospace Centre estimates the nation’s aviation activity accounted for 1.16% of total global emissions from aviation, and that 96% of the Netherlands’ aviation CO2 was generated at Schiphol Airport.

“Current in-sector decarbonisation measures, excluding offsetting, are not enough to meet Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) derived carbon budgets compatible with 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming for Amsterdam Airport Schiphol,” says the report. “Significant demand management measures, to be implemented by 2030 at the latest, seem the only viable way out.”

It says 80% of Dutch flights are intra-EU and contribute about 20% of total aviation CO2 emissions, whereas 15% of the longest distance flights (over 5,000 km) are responsible for some 75% of emissions. “As such, demand management measures targeting long distance flights are more effective than measures reducing total demand,” says NLR.

The level of CO2 emissions in 2030 is the key determinant for cumulative emissions over the 2020-2050 period, stresses the report. Cumulative emissions 2020 to 2030 are governed by fleet renewal, operational improvements, SAF blending and the traffic network (number of flights). Cumulative emissions 2031 to 2050 are governed by RefuelEU Aviation, annual efficiency improvement and the 2030 emissions level. Additional and higher quality SAF, or further efficiency improvements only make a limited 2-8% impact on cumulative CO2 for 2031-2050.

The CE Delft report for Schiphol estimates aviation’s 2019 proportion of global CO2 emissions was 2.4% from tank-to-wing emissions – those created purely from aviation fuel combustion – and 3.9% from well-to-wing emissions, which also incorporate the CO2 expelled from fuel production and distribution.

“In the last decades aviation emissions grew by 3-4% per year,” it reports. “Growth in flights has always outperformed the efficiency improvements by new aircraft types and more efficient operations, leading to growth in emissions.

“A net zero target in a specific year is not sufficient. Global warming is driven by the cumulative greenhouse gas emissions between today and the moment when global net zero is achieved. In-sector action between now and 2030 reduces cumulative CO2 emissions but overshoots the majority of airport carbon budgets.”

The report says replacing fossil fuels with SAF is technically relatively easy but expensive and predicts technological breakthroughs such as battery-electric or hydrogen propulsion would not lead to significant emission reductions in the next two decades. It adds new aircraft types currently in development will be in operation in 2050, powered by kerosene or SAF.

“Immediate scaling up of biofuel production and pre-commercial development of the synthetic fuel production are essential,” says CE Delft. However, it cautions that availability of biomass fuel feedstock and renewable energy would be limited in coming decades, and demand for these resources would be high among competing sectors and global regions.

“Technological breakthroughs will come too late and SAF production has limits,” warns CE Delft, adding: “The instruments that are currently in place are not sufficient. They need to be updated or replaced as soon as possible.”

The CE Delft report concurs with the NLR conclusion that demand management measures are necessary to align the aviation sector with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

However, CE Delft acknowledges that if the number of long distance flights from the Netherlands is reduced, a large number of passengers and cargo operators will switch to other airports, while others will fly less as a consequence of a decline in connectivity and higher ticket prices.

“If the ambition to reduce CO2 is much higher in the Netherlands than in neighbouring or competing countries worldwide, this may lead to competitive disadvantages in the short term,” it says. “Not taking this action will have tremendous consequences in the long term.

“The aviation industry worldwide has to answer the question as to how it prevents a substantial overshoot of the remaining carbon budget. Action is needed in all parts of the world. This includes the development of new technology, fast upscaling of sustainable fuels but also ambitious demand management.”

Photo © Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (Roger Cremers)

Tony Harrington

Correspondent

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