{"id":3205,"date":"2022-06-24T09:19:48","date_gmt":"2022-06-24T08:19:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenairnews.com\/?p=3205"},"modified":"2022-08-01T11:55:52","modified_gmt":"2022-08-01T10:55:52","slug":"failure-at-icao-to-agree-a-long-term-climate-goal-or-kicking-the-can-down-the-road-would-be-unacceptable-says-iata","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenairnews.com\/?p=3205","title":{"rendered":"Failure at ICAO to agree a long-term climate goal or kicking the can down the road would be unacceptable, says IATA"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A wide array of sustainability storylines topped the agenda at IATA\u2019s 78th AGM<\/a> with the prospect in sight of a sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) production \u201ctipping point\u201d, the necessity of achieving a Long-term Aspirational Goal (LTAG) on emissions from international aviation at the ICAO Assembly in late September, and the risk of CORSIA being derailed, reports Mark Pilling<\/em> from Doha. The meeting came only eight months after last year\u2019s AGM, which approved the resolution for the global air transport industry to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, described as a \u201cmomentous decision\u201d by IATA SVP Environment & Sustainability Sebastian Mikosz. Airlines are more committed than ever on achieving net zero, he said, but needed an agreement on an LTAG. IATA Director General Willie Walsh said failure by states at the Assembly or a \u201cpolite agreement to kick the can down the road\u201d would be \u201cunacceptable outcomes\u201d. As was demonstrated at the AGM, the industry\u2019s net zero goal has resulted in a huge focus on SAF in order, according to IATA\u2019s roadmap, to fulfil aviation\u2019s net zero commitment.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Current estimates are for SAF to account for 65% of aviation\u2019s carbon mitigation in 2050. That would require an annual production capacity of 449 billion litres. Investments are in place to expand SAF annual production from the current 125 million litres to 5 billion by 2025. IATA\u2019s tracking of current SAF projects indicates that production could reach 30 billion litres by 2030, said Mikosz. There are at least 10 SAF plants coming online by 2025, each with capacity of 5 billion litres annually, a hike of 50 times what was available in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Doha, IATA called for governments to urgently put in place large-scale incentives to rapidly expand the use of SAF. \u201cGovernments don\u2019t need to invent a playbook. Incentives to transition electricity production to renewable sources like solar or wind worked,\u201d said Willie Walsh, IATA\u2019s Director General. \u201cAs a result, clean energy solutions are now cheap and widely available. Though still far from where we need to be, it would be a clear tipping point towards our net zero ambition of ample SAF quantities at affordable prices.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mikosz contrasted the governmental policies that promote SAF, with IATA favouring the US approach of giving industry incentives or tax credits whereas the European Union is going down the mandate route. The latter policy is less favourable because \u201cit puts pressure on costs but not pressure on production,\u201d believes Mikosz. \u201cThe SAF mandate in the EU is not the most efficient and can dilute environmental benefits.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the US, which is setting an example for others to follow, SAF production is expected to reach 11 billion litres in 2030 on the back of heavy government incentives, said IATA. Europe, on the other hand, is the example not to follow, it argues. \u201cUnder its Fit for 55 initiative, the EU is planning to mandate airlines uplift 5% SAF at every European airport by 2030. Decentralising production will delay the development of economies of scale. And forcing the land transport of SAF will reduce the environmental benefit of using SAF,\u201d said the association.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the event\u2019s closing press conference, Walsh also called on the energy giants to step up further. \u201cThere is plenty of room for them to do a much better job in relation to sustainable fuels. Progress to date is measured in words rather than actions.\u201d Akbar Al Baker, Qatar Airways Chief Executive and AGM host, added: \u201cThe pressure on these companies to move to SAF will be immense; they will have no option but to turn to it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Walsh: \u201cThe bottom line is that an opportunity is here. This is a business opportunity. It is a business opportunity for countries. You no longer need to have oil in the ground to produce fuel. If the oil majors don\u2019t do it, they will no longer be the only people [in the fuel supply market].\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asked about his airline\u2019s views on SAF, Al Baker said it had been working for a decade with the Qatar University on SAF research. \u201cThe results are very positive and once they master the process, they will be able to produce a large amount of SAF.\u201d He noted that some shippers are already asking his airline if it is using SAF, and are willing to buy it if available. However, on today\u2019s price premium for SAF, Al Baker is clear: \u201cI have no problem to pay 20% more [for SAF] to fuel my aircraft but I won\u2019t pay 4-5 times more.\u201d He is also unenthusiastic on deals that are ambiguous about what the price will be on delivery of SAF. \u201cHow can you have a contract when you don\u2019t know how much they are going to charge you?\u201d he questioned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whichever policy approach is better for incentivising its production, \u201cas an industry we have created a demand point,\u201d said Mikosz. By 2025, IATA estimates there will be at least $30 billion in forward purchase agreements for SAF, up from the $17 billion to be made this year. By 2025 there will have been 2 million flights where SAF will have been used, forecasts the industry body, up from 450,000 in 2022. By 2025, IATA also believes there will be 11 technical pathways approved for SAF production, up from the seven approved today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, there is a significant geographic disparity on SAF production plans, with plants coming on stream in Europe, North America, Singapore and China, but none in Africa or the Middle East, and only one in Latin America. This shows why a book-and-claim system is important, so airlines anywhere can buy and achieve the benefit of SAF, said Mikosz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IATA also gave more detail on the need for offsetting and carbon capture to meet net zero by 2050. The use of Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) was called out more specifically by IATA at Doha. \u201cWe consider CCUS as part of the offsetting approach,\u201d said Mikosz. \u201cOffsets are a gap filler and there is no plan that doesn\u2019t have a bit of offsets in it to reach net zero by 2050,\u201d with up to 19% coming from these two sources. However, he added, \u201cthey will play a diminishing role in the industry strategy as other technologies develop.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As with SAF, airlines are creating a demand signal for CCUS, a solution that removes carbon from the atmosphere and has a major advantage in that it is one of the components needed to manufacture power-to-liquid eKerosene, said Mikosz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IATA used the AGM to urge governments to adopt a Long-term Aspirational Goal (LTAG) to decarbonise aviation \u201caligned with industry commitments\u201d at the 41st ICAO Assembly starting in late September. Mikosz indicated he would be \u201cextremely disappointed\u201d if ICAO did not agree an LTAG as its own technical studies and scenario planning showed how crucial it is to decarbonise air transport and spell out the cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IATA has confidence that it will be adopted but whether it is aligned with the industry\u2019s 2050 target is another question. However, Mikosz said IATA\u2019s 2050 position would not change, with no \u2018plan B\u2019 in place if an LTAG is not agreed, leaving only the option to try again at the next Assembly in three years\u2019 time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the AGM in Boston last October, China\u2019s airlines voted against the industry target, arguing for a later date. Asked if there had been any rethink on the part of Chinese carriers towards IATA\u2019s 2050 target since then, Mikosz confirmed Chinese airline chiefs had clarified to the IATA board in Doha that the position had not changed, and that they are adhering to China\u2019s national policy of a 2060 decarbonisation date. One possibility at the ICAO Assembly is that states adopt different timetables, giving some states more time to reach net zero. However, said Mikosz, differentiated timelines \u201cwould not make me happy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICAO\u2019s carbon offsetting scheme CORSIA was another significant talking point in Doha. Despite its critics, \u201cfor our industry, CORSIA is a huge success because it is the only market-based measure agreed by an industrial sector to deal globally with emissions,\u201d said Mikosz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, as Walsh said in his report to the AGM: \u201cCORSIA is in danger. Governments are split on the baseline. It was meant to be the average of international emissions for 2019 and 2020. When CORSIA was agreed in 2016 nobody could have imagined that governments would stop airlines from flying for much of 2020,\u201c said Walsh. \u201cAfter agreeing to remedy this by using only 2019 \u2013 the industry\u2019s position \u2013 several governments now want to penalise us for not flying and have proposed to revert to the 2019-2020 average, irrespective of inequities.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOn top of this, not all governments respect CORSIA as the single economic measure for international aviation that it was meant to be,\u201d said Walsh. \u201cThe most worrying is the EU. Its parliament voted to apply its ETS [Emissions Trading System] on top of CORSIA, forgetting that the world unanimously rejected this extra-territorial ambition in 2012. We need a successful, fair and effective CORSIA. Our proposal is to maintain a 2019 baseline. If states want to be more ambitious, and they should, incentivising SAF is the way to go.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mikosz acknowledged that states have differing views on CORSIA and how much they should pay to decarbonise. For instance, countries like Brazil and India are concerned that as CORSIA moves into the mandatory phase of paying for offsets from 2027 it could penalise the growth of their air transport industries. \u201cThe biggest challenge is having a global system, but one that does not impact negatively the growth of the market,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In September, all eyes will be on the ICAO Assembly to see whether an LTAG can be agreed and how CORSIA will change. These are complex and challenging times for an industry seeking state backing and a global approach to sustainability. Walsh observed during his address: \u201cThis approach is in the DNA of aviation. It is how we tackled noise and improved safety. Achieving net zero by 2050 is as critical. Failure to agree on a long-term aspirational goal, or a polite agreement that kicks the can down the road, would be unacceptable outcomes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Photo: Sebastian Mikosz, IATA’s SVP Environment & Sustainability<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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