{"id":4800,"date":"2023-08-15T09:32:50","date_gmt":"2023-08-15T08:32:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenairnews.com\/?p=4800"},"modified":"2023-12-20T17:37:30","modified_gmt":"2023-12-20T17:37:30","slug":"google-ai-based-prediction-study-with-american-airlines-shows-54-reduction-in-aircraft-contrails","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenairnews.com\/?p=4800","title":{"rendered":"Google AI-based prediction study with American Airlines shows 54% reduction in aircraft contrails"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A study led by Google Research and Breakthrough Energy, together with support from American Airlines, has found that by using artificial intelligence (AI) based predictions to make small modifications to routes that were projected to create contrails, their formation could be reduced by 54%, although avoidance burned 2% additional fuel. Other recent studies have shown that only a small percentage of flights need to be adjusted to avoid the majority of contrail warming. Therefore, say the researchers, the total fuel impact could be as low as 0.3% across an airline\u2019s flights, suggesting contrails could be avoided at scale for around $5-25\/ton CO2e using the predictions, making it a cost-effective warming reduction measure that could be improved still further with enhancements. A small group of American pilots flew 70 test flights over six months, after which Google Research analysed satellite imagery.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Cirrus clouds created by aircraft contrails are said to account for around 35% of aviation\u2019s global warming impact During the day, the clouds reflect back incoming sunlight and warmth but nighttime contrails trap heat and a net warming effect takes place. However, contrails only form in ice-supersaturated air below a critical temperature threshold, within areas tending to be tens to hundreds of kilometres in the horizontal and only a few hundred metres in the vertical extent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe challenge is knowing where these regions will occur,\u201d said researchers from Google<\/a>. \u201cBy combining massive quantities of weather data, satellite data and flight data, AI can create state-of-the-art predictions of when and where contrails are likely to be formed. Pilots and dispatchers can then use this information to adjust the altitudes of their flights.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The research team developed an approach to leverage and analyse satellite imagery, and spent hundreds of hours labelling tens of thousands of contrail images collected by the geostationary satellite, GOES-16<\/a>. Labelled data was used to train a computer vision model to detect contrails when they are formed. The detection model can identify contrails that are visible within GOES imagery in a matter of 30 minutes, say the researchers, who then combined the computer vision model with large-scale weather data, flight data and satellite images to develop a more accurate prediction model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The contrail-likely zone predictions were integrated into the tablets American\u2019s pilots used in flight, so they could make real-time adjustments in altitude to avoid creating contrails, just as they would do to avoid turbulence. The prediction model\u2019s performance was then evaluated using satellite imagery to compare the number of contrails produced in flights where pilots used the predictions against where they were not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe now have the first proof point that commercial flights can use these predictions to avoid contrails, as verified in satellite imagery,\u201d said Juliet Rothenberg, Head of Product for Climate AI at Google Research<\/a>. \u201cWe\u2019re grateful for our partnership with American Airlines and Breakthrough Energy \u2013 together we\u2019ve taken a significant step towards understanding a high-potential climate solution.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Google Research said it planned to extend its models to geostationary satellites over Europe, Africa, the Indian Ocean, East Asia and Western Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe results from this small-scale test are encouraging and, while there are more questions to answer about how to operationalise contrails avoidance across our industry, we\u2019re excited to have played a role in establishing their first proof point,\u201d said Jill Blickstein, VP Sustainability at American<\/a>. \u201cAnd we\u2019re looking forward to sharing what we learned with stakeholders in the aviation industry and beyond.\u201d          <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Added Marc Shapiro, Director of Breakthrough Energy<\/a> Contrails: \u201cAvoiding contrails might be one of the best ways to limit aviation\u2019s climate impact, and now we have a clear demonstration that it\u2019s possible to do so. This study is a great example of what happens when creative, ambitious organisations work together to better understand and solve a tough problem.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study follows the setting up of a cross-sector task force last year of aviation industry, tech sector and academic leaders to explore opportunities to address the warming impact of certain contrails. Assembled by RMI and Breakthrough Energy, the Contrail Impact Task Force<\/a> includes airlines Alaska, American, Southwest, United and Virgin Atlantic, as well as Airbus, Boeing, Flightkeys, Google Research and Imperial College London.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It aims to reduce the climate impact from contrails by:<\/p>\n\n\n\n