{"id":5210,"date":"2024-01-17T15:25:33","date_gmt":"2024-01-17T15:25:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenairnews.com\/?p=5210"},"modified":"2024-02-29T10:38:43","modified_gmt":"2024-02-29T10:38:43","slug":"uk-mps-welcome-governments-jet-zero-ambitions-but-have-concerns-over-deliverability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenairnews.com\/?p=5210","title":{"rendered":"UK MPs welcome government\u2019s Jet Zero ambitions but have concerns over deliverability"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Cross-party MPs on the UK Parliament\u2019s Environmental Audit Committee have welcomed government policy steps to scale up and support new technologies, zero carbon aircraft and domestic sustainable aviation fuel production in efforts to reach a sectoral target of net zero emissions by 2050. However, its Net Zero Aviation report just published expresses a number of concerns over the government\u2019s Jet Zero Strategy and notes its high ambition scenario needs to be followed through with \u201cvigour and the appropriate priority\u201d for delivery or risks the UK falling behind in its emissions reduction targets, leaving other sectors to pick up the slack. The Committee calls on the government to undertake an early review of progress by the end of 2025 and to urgently consider further demand management measures should reductions fall short of prediction. The government must also carry through on its legislative promise to include international aviation emissions in the national carbon budgets, they say. The MPs welcome the establishment of a mandate for SAF use and call for swift progress on introducing a revenue certainty mechanism to support SAF developers. Meanwhile, a group of NGOs has written to the government seeking assurances that such a mechanism would be funded by the aviation industry and not the taxpayer.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Commenting on its report<\/a>, a member of the Committee<\/a>, Jerome Mayhew MP, said aviation\u2019s decarbonisation path was substantially slower than that of many other sectors of the economy and would require a number of different initiatives to make a tangible impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFirst, the correct legislation needs to be in place. Despite promises over the years, the government is yet to include aviation emissions in its carbon budgets, which monitor progress in the UK\u2019s emissions reduction policies,\u201d he said. \u201cSecond, we must support industry in developing new technologies and fuels, and provide the right certainty and definitions for what can be coined a \u2018sustainable aviation fuel\u2019. These new technologies must not only reduce CO2 emissions, but take into account and mitigate other environmental impacts associated with aviation. And finally, we must champion UK innovation on zero carbon aircraft here at home for UK flights.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2019, the UK\u2019s aviation emissions amounted to 37.8 MtCO2e \u2013 36.4 MtCO2e from outgoing international flights and 1.4 MtCO2e from domestic flights \u2013 together accounting for 8% of total UK GHG emissions. Having fallen substantially during the pandemic, emissions are expected to climb as traffic recovers to pre-pandemic levels, potentially this coming year. The government\u2019s independent advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC) predicted in 2019 that unabated, aviation was likely to be the largest emitting sector in the UK by 2050, consuming 36% of the available carbon budget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The CCC\u2019s projections for 2050 under its \u2018balanced net zero pathway\u2019 modelling envisage aviation contributing 23 MtCO2e to the UK\u2019s emissions, set against a baseline of 51 MtCO2e. The reduction of 28 MtCO2e comprises a contribution of 12 MtCO2e from demand management, 8 MtCO2e from SAF and 8 MtCO2e from efficiency measures and hybrid fuels. This was based on a number assumptions, including that by 2050 demand would have grown by no more than 25% relative to a 2018 baseline, the sector would improve its efficiency by 1.40% annually to 2050 and by the same year, 17% of UK aviation fuel would be from biofuel and 8% from synthetic fuel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By contrast, the government\u2019s own modelling, which underpins its Jet Zero Strategy assumptions, projects traffic demand would rise by 70% by 2050, airline fuel efficiency would increase 2% annually between 2017 and 2050, and SAF would be providing 10% of aviation fuel by 2030, 22% by 2040 and 50% by 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Through its Sustainable Aviation body, the UK aviation industry\u2019s modelling shows different projections from both those of the government\u2019s and the CCC\u2019s, with a much higher forecast of unabated aviation emissions but markedly more optimistic contributions from new fuels and technological efficiencies in aircraft fleets, including zero-emission aircraft. As a result, the industry\u2019s projection of the 2050 \u2018emissions gap\u2019 \u2013 residual emissions unable to be mitigated by action within the aviation sector \u2013 appears far lower than the CCC and government estimates, notes the EAC report, which recommends the government work with the CCC and Sustainable Aviation on a comparative analysis in order to reach a consensus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over two and a half years after promising to bring legislation to include international aviation emissions in the UK\u2019s Sixth Carbon Budget target by 2037, the MPs recommend the government lay before Parliament a draft statutory instrument \u201cwithout further delay\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The government has committed to five-yearly reviews of progress against the Jet Zero Strategy\u2019s targets, which, on the current timetable, would make the first review in 2027, which the EAC believes is too late.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe recommend that an initial review of the Jet Zero Strategy and the modelling underlying its \u2018high ambition\u2019 scenario be undertaken no later than the end of 2025, with a view to determining whether the Strategy remains on track to meet the interim emissions reductions projected for 2020 and 2040, as well as the overall reductions projected for 2050,\u201d says its report, which adds that it should be with the active engagement of the industry.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cShould the evidence of the review indicate that technological measures alone will not deliver the emissions reductions predicted, we recommend that ministers reconsider the role of demand management measures in aviation emissions policy. In preparation for the outcome of that review, we recommend that the government develop policy proposals on demand reduction, including consideration of greater use of digital technologies, reducing the cost of rail travel and a frequent flyer levy, should these then by required.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The MPs on the Committee were encouraged by the research and development taking place in the UK on zero emission flight technologies, recognising their deployment is realistically likely to be restricted to short-haul flights for the foreseeable future. They recommend the government establishes a target under the Jet Zero Strategy for the full roll-out of zero-emission aircraft on a minimum number of routes essential to UK connectivity by 2040. When promoting research into the non-CO2 effects of aviation, the government should also include the funding of research into the effects on the atmosphere and climate of aircraft using zero-emission flight technologies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Committee welcomes the initiatives taken so far by the government to establish a domestic industry for the manufacture of SAF and its efforts to build long-term supply chains internationally, and also the criteria restricting the feedstocks to be used in UK-manufactured SAF and specifying that feedstocks are not to be obtained from land with high biodiversity value or land with high carbon stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it is concerned about the broad definition of what is considered \u2018sustainable\u2019 and in the absence of a global standard for SAF, that this might lead to the development of aviation fuels that cannot credibly be described as such.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe recommend that the government takes every opportunity to establish in its policy instruments for a UK SAF industry the strongest safeguards to ensure significant lifecycle emissions savings from the use of SAF developed in the UK,\u201d says the report. \u201cWe further recommend that ministers and officials work vigorously at ICAO and in all other relevant international bodies for the establishment of a global regulatory standard for SAF which is comprehensive and rigorous.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It also calls for \u201cswift progress\u201d on the implementation of a price support mechanism to incentivise investment for new SAF production pathways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Committee\u2019s report sets out clearly what the government must be prioritising, and I look forward to receiving its response,\u201d said Mayhew.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A group of ten NGOs is also looking for a response to a letter<\/a> they have sent to UK transport ministers urging the government to follow through with its intention that a SAF price support, or revenue certainty, mechanism should be funded solely by industry. The group, which includes Greenpeace, Opportunity Green, Transport & Environment and the Aviation Environment Federation, seek clarification that all the costs of such a scheme are entirely funded by the aviation sector and that existing or future taxes or revenues that flow to the Treasury, such as Air Passenger Duty or from the UK ETS, should not be earmarked for the fund. Given that the majority of British people did not fly, it would be \u201cgrossly unfair\u201d for taxpayers to cover the funding costs, they argue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAt no point should there be any potential for Treasury money to be used to cover any scheme costs; the scheme should be administered by a body that is not the Treasury, similar to how the Low Carbon Contracts Company operates regarding renewable energy generation,\u201d says the letter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The aim of the proposed revenue certainty mechanism<\/a> is to lower the risk of new SAF production projects in the UK by guaranteeing investors a degree of price predictability. The government expects to complete a short consultation process in the first half of 2024, with a view to drafting new legislation and then delivery of the scheme by the end of 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Photo: The UK government helped fund the Virgin Atlantic 100% SAF flight in November 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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