{"id":6447,"date":"2024-12-19T11:35:24","date_gmt":"2024-12-19T11:35:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenairnews.com\/?p=6447"},"modified":"2025-02-17T10:12:03","modified_gmt":"2025-02-17T10:12:03","slug":"easa-releases-status-report-on-europes-saf-production-and-readiness-to-meet-blending-targets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenairnews.com\/?p=6447","title":{"rendered":"EASA releases status report on Europe\u2019s SAF production and readiness to meet blending targets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

With the EU about to activate its sustainable aviation fuel blending mandate, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has released an assessment of Europe\u2019s preparedness to deliver required volumes of SAF up to 2030. The blending requirement will escalate from a minimum 2% of jet fuel composition by the end of 2025 to 70% in 2050 for supplies dispensed at airports across the EU\u2019s 27 member states. EASA concludes that by 2030, when the blending mandate reaches 6%, there will be sufficient European production of SAF through multiple pathways to meet the requirements of the ReFuelEU Aviation regulation, which governs the mandate. But it warns rapid action is needed to ensure that a sub-target, initially 0.7%, is achieved for the use of increasingly important synthetic aviation fuels, or e-fuels.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The EASA report<\/a>, titled \u2018State of the EU SAF market in 2023\u2019, examines the capacity of member states to produce the new fuels during the next five years, based on an assessment of the sector\u2019s performance in 2023 and the addition of updated projections. The report, EASA\u2019s first on this subject, also provides real or estimated reference prices for multiple types of current and future aviation fuels and outlines emerging trends in European SAF production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis first report on SAF provides a comprehensive analysis and valuable insights to the potential of sustainable aviation fuels for commercial airline operations in Europe,\u201d commented Maria Rueda, EASA\u2019s Strategy and Safety Management Director. \u201cIt will be a key component on the journey towards a more sustainable and environmentally friendly aviation sector.\u201d \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EASA says the minimum SAF volume required by 2030 under the ReFuelEU Aviation (RFEUA) programme is around 2.8 million tonnes based on forecast jet fuel consumption of 46 million tonnes and a mandated blending level which, by then, will be at least 6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it qualifies that the SAF production market is \u201cinherently volatile\u201d, impacted by factors including high capital expenditure, feedstock supply chain limitations and the risks to investors of supporting technologies in their early stages. \u201cWhile many projects are announced,\u201d adds EASA, \u201csome may not reach commercialisation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report presents three scenarios for SAF production in EU countries: Operating, Realistic and Optimistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u2018Operating\u2019 scenario covers only those facilities currently producing SAF, which are expected to deliver just over 1 million tonnes of product by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u2018Realistic\u2019 assumption estimates 3.2 million tonnes of SAF will be produced and distributed by facilities already operating, under construction or with small pilot plants either activated or being built. This includes co-processing of SAF in existing refineries.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u2018Optimistic\u2019 case predicts 5.5 million tonnes, including pipeline production from projects which have announced elements including technology, feedstock, SAF capacity, commissioning year, location and technical partners, but are yet to be built.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Realistic case led to the exclusion of facilities which had not gone through final investment decision (FID) at the time of assessment,\u201d says the report, singling out e-fuels as an example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere is a strong pipeline of synthetic aviation fuel projects in the EU, estimated at 1.1 million tonnes by 2030, but at the time of assessment none of these facilities had gone through FID. They were therefore not included in the realistic capacity estimation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report says the hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA) process, which encompasses converted vegetable oils, waste oils, greases and fats, is the major SAF production pathway, supported by additional supplies through co-processing facilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It adds that immature technology for other SAF production pathways including Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) prevented them from delivering commercial volumes of the fuel during the study reference year, 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As well, says EASA, the AtJ process of converting alcohols into SAF disqualifies the fuel in the EU because the alcohols are fermented from food crops including corn and sugarcane. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additional pathways, including Sun-to-Liquid (StL) and Hydrothermal Liquidation (HtL), are also under development. \u201cHowever,\u201d says the report, \u201cthey remain immature, with only a couple of pilot plants announced, and their contribution to commercial SAF volumes is projected to be negligible by 2030.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Synthetic aviation fuel is required to comprise at least 1.2% of jet fuel makeup by 2030, which EASA calculates to be a 600,000-tonne requirement. Also known as Power-to-Liquid, or PtL, this process combines water with renewable electricity to extract green hydrogen, which is then combined with captured CO2 to create SAF and other products such as renewable diesel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWithin the EU,\u201d says the EASA report, \u201cmore than 15 synthetic aviation fuel production facilities have been announced, primarily in countries with considerable renewable electricity capacity or infrastructure.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it adds, the requirement for large volumes of renewable electricity, the costs of producing the power and limited sources of eligible carbon in many key locations drives up the costs of e-fuels.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe resulting production price is currently non-competitive with other forms of SAF production, particularly HEFA. Therefore, the development of synthetic aviation fuels is likely to be driven by the RFEUA sub-mandate that requires their supply.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of eight current or future aviation fuel categories, the report lists market prices or production cost estimates in 2023, reflecting vast premiums for non-fossil product. EASA used price reporting agency (PRA) references to provide benchmarks for price assessments or a basis for estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhereas 2023 prices for conventional aviation fuels and aviation biofuels were available through multiple PRA indexes,\u201d said EASA, \u201cthe market for other RFEUA aviation fuel types was either non-existent or not yet liquid enough to determine actual reference market prices for 2023. For these fuel types, a bottom-up production cost estimation was developed to provide indicative results.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report listed the average 2023 market price of conventional aviation fuel at \u20ac816 ($850) per tonne and aviation biofuels at \u20ac2,768 ($2,880) per tonne, the latter with an estimated production cost of \u20ac1,770 ($1,840) per tonne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because none of the other fuel categories had a market price in 2023, production cost estimates were produced by EASA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Production costs for recycled carbon aviation fuels were estimated to average \u20ac2,125 per tonne, while advanced aviation biofuels averaged \u20ac2,675 per tonne, low carbon hydrogen for aviation averaged \u20ac4,700 per tonne, synthetic low carbon aviation fuels averaged \u20ac5,300 per tonne and renewable hydrogen for aviation averaged \u20ac6,925 per tonne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But by far the largest estimates were those for synthetic aviation fuels, the average production cost of which EASA lists as \u20ac7,500 per tonne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The same average estimate \u2013 \u20ac7,500 per tonne \u2013 also applied to synthetic fuel produced with CO2 captured at the industrial source of emission or that made from biogenic CO2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most expensive production cost estimated was for fuel produced with CO2 captured from the atmosphere, averaging \u20ac8,225 per tonne \u2013 more than 10 times the 2023 average market price of conventional jet fuel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTo be able to meet the synthetic aviation fuel minimum shares, announced synthetic aviation fuel facilities would need to reach FID within the next couple of years,\u201d says the EASA report.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOn top of this, continuous scale-up in SAF capacity would be needed to comply with RFEUA by 2035, as the minimum SAF share required increases from 6% to 20% by that date.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report, developed with the support of consultancy ICF, is a precursor to a first EASA annual technical report due in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Photo: OMV<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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