{"id":7533,"date":"2025-06-16T21:49:30","date_gmt":"2025-06-16T20:49:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenairnews.com\/?p=7533"},"modified":"2025-08-08T16:32:00","modified_gmt":"2025-08-08T15:32:00","slug":"te-study-finds-europes-early-e-saf-lead-in-danger-of-losing-its-first-mover-advantage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenairnews.com\/?p=7533","title":{"rendered":"T&E study finds Europe\u2019s early e-SAF lead in danger of losing its first-mover advantage"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

With about half of the world\u2019s announced production capacity, Europe can be a leader in e-kerosene (e-SAF), but severe bottlenecks mean it could lose its first mover advantage, warns a new study by green group Transport & Environment (T&E). Over 40 large-scale projects are planned in Europe, with a potential e-SAF production capacity of around 3 million tonnes, or roughly 5% of the fuel that Europe\u2019s aviation sector needs to operate. If all the announced projects were to be built, the EU could meet the requirements of the ReFuelEU legislation\u2019s blending targets for aviation synthetic fuels. However, only four of the identified large-scale plants are at an advanced stage and none have reached the crucial final investment decision (FID). T&E blames funding bottlenecks and oil majors for hampering progress and urges EU policymakers to prioritise e-SAF in the upcoming Sustainable Transport Investment Plan (STIP).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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It defines \u201clarge-scale projects\u201d as those with a production capacity of more than 10,000 tonnes of e-SAF a year and the \u201cadvanced stage\u201d meaning the project is either undergoing the Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) phase or pending FID after completing its FEED.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe EU\u2019s law on sustainable aviation fuels kick-started an e-kerosene revolution in Europe, but fuel suppliers are not cashing in on this potential,\u201d commented T&E Aviation Policy Officer Camile Mutrelle on the study\u2019s report<\/a>. \u201cWithout more final investment decisions, the EU\u2019s 2030 target and plans to prosper from green aviation will fail. To succeed, these projects need a stable legal framework, as provided by ReFuelEU, and funding through an array of public support mechanisms and private capital investments.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report says that while Europe has a head start on e-SAF, other markets are advancing. For example, China now has 10 large-scale plants announced, representing around 20% of global capacity. The United States is also catching up, with the largest e-SAF offtake agreement to date secured by US startup Twelve with airline group IAG, and the world\u2019s first-ever FID for a large-scale e-SAF plant achieved by startup Infinium, which is expected to have up to 22,000 tonnes of e-fuels capacity per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European projects face significant hurdles, says T&E, and with each e-SAF plant requiring \u20ac1 billion to \u20ac2 billion in capital, financing poses the biggest barrier, with energy costs, infrastructure and CO2 sourcing bringing other challenges. It claims EU funding mechanisms are not strong enough to support the level of investment required \u201cand traditional fuel suppliers are notably absent from the conversation,\u201d the report observes. \u201cTo date, major oil companies have made negligible contributions to e-kerosene, while continuing to spend billions on fossil fuels.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Added Mutrelle: \u201cStartups have taken the lead, but lack the internal resources to finance the capital-intensive infrastructure that is urgently needed. Getting oil majors on board and EU financing mechanisms up to scratch will give e-kerosene the lift-off it needs. The STIP is a chance to set the right flight path by prioritisng e-SAF, providing a comprehensive mechanism to address the challenges EU projects face.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regulatory uncertainty is another challenge, with a perception by T&E that industry pressure to delay ReFuelEU\u2019s SAF targets have been unhelpful, \u201cmaking the scheduled review of the legislation in 2027 especially vulnerable.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T&E also calls for a European market intermediary using a double-sided auction mechanism to be established to address the current issues around financing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Image: In May 2024, Arcadia eFuels completed FEED for\u00a0its eSAF project in\u00a0Vordingborg, Denmark, but awaits FID<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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