Early data shows uncertainty that UK SAF mandate can be met in its first year

Data from the UK Department for Transport (DfT) indicates sustainable aviation fuel made up 1.63% of the total jet fuel in the period January to late October 2025, representing 163 million litres of SAF out of a total of 10 billion litres of all aviation fuel supplied. Some believe this is likely to result in the UK missing the 2% target of the first year of its SAF Mandate, although the DfT says the volumes are provisional and not all suppliers have reported. Final figures are not expected to be published until November 2026. UK industry body Sustainable Aviation said it was confident the 2025 mandate requirement would be met. Used cooking oil made up the entire feedstock of the SAF supplied, with the vast majority (72%) coming from China, the rest from Japan and Taiwan. Legislation to incentivise SAF producers through a revenue certainty mechanism (RCM) is passing through Parliament and the DfT has opened a new consultation on how contracts could be allocated to prospective projects.

The DfT statistics provide information on all aviation fuel reported for the year to October 27 as supplied, including volumes of fuel that have not yet been verified and SAF that has not yet been certified as sustainable and issued with certificates. The data shows the breakdown of the percentage of SAF supplied that has been certified as sustainable and issued with certificates.

Compliance with the mandate requires that fuel volumes must be validated before they count towards fulfilment of suppliers’ obligations, which contribute to a lag between actual SAF deliveries and completed mandate compliance.

Commenting on the latest data, Duncan McCourt, Chief Executive of Sustainable Aviation, said: “These provisional figures show the UK is using significant quantities of SAF and we remain confident that the mandate will be met and UK aviation will use increasing quantities of SAF in the years to come.”

Regardless of whether the 2% requirement will be met, the UK SAF supply in 2025 will outstrip progress taking place globally. IATA recently estimated that SAF would make up just 0.6% of total jet fuel consumption in 2025, with projections of just 0.8% in 2026.

The UK SAF Mandate rises linearly each year to a 10% requirement by 2030, with a progressive cap on HEFA-based fuels, such as those produced from used cooking oil, starting in 2027. The EU SAF mandate also requires a 2% SAF mix in 2025 but has a lower 2030 target of 6%, which includes a 0.7% synthetic fuel sub-mandate.

The UK government is currently steering legislation to introduce a revenue certainty mechanism (RCM) through Parliament, which it expects to be implemented by the end of 2026. Its purpose is to help new SAF projects get the investment they need to ramp up the production of SAF in the UK through offering them revenue certainty. The scheme is to be funded by a levy on aviation fuel suppliers.

The DfT has run a number of public consultations on the mechanism and has just launched another that covers two core elements: an indicative Heads of Terms, which outlines the proposed contractual framework for RCM contracts, and a contract allocation approach, which is the process for bidders to apply for contracts under the RCM and defines how these bids will be considered. The consultation closes on April 3.

“Under the SAF revenue certainty mechanism, SAF producers will enter into a private law contract with a government-backed counterparty. These contracts will set a strike price for SAF: if producers sell their SAF for below the strike price, the counterparty makes payments of the difference; if the SAF is sold for above the strike price, the producer makes payments of the difference to the counterparty,” explained Heidi Alexander, the government’s Transport Secretary. “This addresses the most significant constraint on investment in SAF production and sends a clear signal to investors: that this is a serious UK investment opportunity.”

Photo: Shell Aviation

Christopher Surgenor
Editor