PtX fuels have significant Asia-Pacific potential but face many barriers, finds report

A new study has highlighted significant potential for Power-to-Liquids (PtL) and Power-and-Biomass-to-Liquids (PBtL) aviation fuels in the Asia-Pacific region. However, fragmented national strategies, immature technologies and insufficient planning for renewable electricity supply are among the key barriers to progress. Produced by the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB) and FutureScaleX Insights, in consultation with a broad range of industry stakeholders, the study is billed as the first integrated assessment of the region’s preparedness to develop these next-generation fuels into “a credible pillar” of low-carbon aviation. Asia-Pacific, the world’s largest consolidated air transport market, is a region of high potential but uneven readiness, says the report, with clear gaps in policy coherence, stakeholder capacity and the investment frameworks needed for large-scale production and deployment. It argues progress is achievable if countries across the region combined their respective strengths instead of acting independently.

PtL and PBtL, also known as Power-to-X (PtX) or e-fuels, are produced through a multi-stage process in which renewable electricity and water are combined to create green hydrogen, which is then reprocessed with either captured CO2 or gasified biomass feedstock to deliver low carbon liquid product.

Current pathways to sustainable aviation fuel are dominated by conversion of used fats, oils and greases, which are also in high demand for renewable diesel and industrial uses. Although still years off commercial production and use, e-fuels are considered critical to diversifying renewable fuel sources and boosting long-term supply to support surging global demand.

“PtX fuels will not scale through engineering progress alone, but require coherent policy, market design and regional collaboration,” says the report, ‘PTX and Sustainable Aviation: A Roadmap for Asia-Pacific’.

“No single country in APAC can meet all enabling conditions alone. Their strengths are complimentary. Resource-rich economies can provide scale, advanced markets can drive technology, and finance and certification, and emerging producers can develop sustainable feedstock chains.

“Several countries possess significant renewable energy potential, industrial CO2 sources and biomass residues, yet others face clear geographic and infrastructure constraints.”

The report highlights six interlinked structural challenges – fragmented and inconsistent policy; differently-balanced stakeholder ecosystems with limited capacity beyond major economies; under-developed infrastructure for CO2, hydrogen and blending; too few financing and de-risking measures; differing sustainability governance and certification processes; and limited integration of air transport growth expectations into planning for renewable energy supply.

“These barriers, more than technical feasibility, define the region’s real readiness gap,” it says.

While no APAC nation offered “uniformly favourable conditions” for e-fuel production, the report singles out specific strengths and challenges evident across the region, identifying Australia and China as the best placed to become major production and export bases, with Japan, Singapore and South Korea as innovation, technology and governance hubs, and India, Malaysia and Thailand as “emerging supply bases with strong resource potential but greater sustainability and investment challenges.”

Australia, it said, “combines exceptional renewable CO2 resource potential with a robust policy framework and active stakeholder base, positioning it as a leading large-scale producer and potential exporter.”

The study says China has vast renewable resources, industrial CO2 availability and dominance in critical raw material supply chains, but still needs to improve sustainability governance and certification alignment.

Japan is described as having limited domestic resources, but compensated with strong policy direction, industrial coordination and CORSIA alignment, thereby establishing it as “a frontrunner” in technology development, demonstration and certification frameworks.

Singapore can combine strong institutional frameworks, CORSIA participation and stakeholder engagement, but is very constrained in domestic resources, positioning it as a regional trading, certification and finance hub, while South Korea has strong industrial and policy capabilities, but limited renewable and feedstock capacity, leaving it reliant on imports.

While Malaysia and Thailand show promising biomass and CO2 potential, they have slower renewable expansion and limited financing mechanisms, highlighting a need for clearer policy signals and stronger sustainability protection. Despite substantial renewable and biomass potential, India faces challenges related to water stress, land use and policy consistency, says the report.

The study found sustainability governance across the APAC region to be evolving inconsistently and SAF blending mandates varied widely across the region. Singapore and South Korea have adopted binding mandates from 1% to as much as 5% by 2030, while Japan has proposed but not yet adopted a 10% mandate by 2030, and Australia, India and China are at voluntary, pilot or developing stages.

Project “bankability” is weakened by high capital costs, competition across sectors for renewable electricity and hydrogen, and uncertain and often non-standardised offtake agreements, says the report.  

It highlights higher private sector activity by stakeholders including airlines, technology developers, producers and financiers in markets including Japan, South Korea, Singapore and increasingly China, while in India and some Southeast Asian nations, initiatives remained largely government-driven, which the report suggests could constrain investment and slow development.

Limited technology maturity and infrastructure readiness was also found to have persisted across the region, and technical progress was needed in the scale-up of direct air capture systems, electrolyser efficiency and flexible operation with various renewable products. Insufficient infrastructure for transporting and storing CO2 and hydrogen, and for blending and distributing SAF, were also challenging.  

The report specifically highlights insufficient planning for renewable electricity as “a systemic gap” and said PtL production would need renewable power volumes “far exceeding current national targets, making electricity availability the first-order constraint on SAF expansion.”

It adds: “Even though there are ambitious plans of renewable energy production and investments in the pipeline, countries must integrate aviation fuel demand into broader renewable energy planning, considering long-term competition among grid decarbonisation, hydrogen production and PtX fuels.

“This calls for early, coordinated investment in generation, transmission and storage infrastructure.”

Tony Harrington
Correspondent