Cambridge report sets four goals to be implemented by 2030 for global aviation to reach Net Zero

A report by the University of Cambridge’s Aviation Impact Accelerator project sets out four actionable steps that are needed over the next five years to help the global aviation sector achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Despite ambitious pledges from governments and industry, the sector so far “remains dangerously off track” in its efforts, says the report, and insists the four goals must be implemented immediately, otherwise “the opportunity for transformation could be lost”. This would leave the world to face escalating climate impacts from a rapidly growing aviation sector that is projected to at least double its emissions by 2050. The four goals include removing aircraft contrails, implementing a new wave of policies aimed at unlocking efficiency gains, reforming sustainable aviation fuel policies and, finally, launching several moonshot technology demonstration programmes such as on long-haul hydrogen aircraft.

The report, ‘Five years to chart a new future for aviation’, is the work of the Aviation Impact Accelerator, a project led by the University of Cambridge and hosted by the university’s Whittle Laboratory and the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL).

While endorsing a net zero vision for the industry, “current efforts fall short in both scope and speed,” it says, arguing that some proposed solutions could potentially exacerbate the crisis, such as a heavy reliance on biomass for jet fuel without managing its environmental impact. “It is also crucial to address aviation’s broader climate impacts, including the formation of persistent contrails. The stakes have never been higher: urgent action is needed to shift the sector onto a sustainable path.”

Commented Professor Rob Miller, Director of the Whittle Laboratory: “Aviation stands at a pivotal moment, much like the automotive industry in the late 2000s. Back then, discussions centred around biofuels as the replacement for petrol and diesel – until Tesla revolutionised the future with electric vehicles. Our five-year plan is designed to accelerate this decision point in aviation, setting it on a path to achieve net zero by 2050.”

The plan involves immediately implementing four sustainable aviation goals that were originated during an inaugural meeting of the Transatlantic Sustainable Aviation Partnership held at MIT in the US in April 2023, with representatives from the UK, US and EU. They were further discussed at a roundtable hosted by the Sustainable Markets Initiative in the presence of King Charles III, and previewed at the opening of COP28.

• Goal 1: Dubbed Operation Blue Skies, it calls on governments and industry to create several ‘Airspace-Scale Living Labs’ to enable a global contrail avoidance system to be deployed by 2030.
• Goal 2: In 2025, leading governments should clearly commit about their intention to drive system-wide efficiency improvements and should work together with industry to develop strategies, so that by 2030, a new wave of policies can be implemented to unlock these systemic efficiency gains.
• Goal 3: In 2025, governments should reform sustainable aviation fuel policy development to adopt a cross-sector approach, enabling rapid scalability within global biomass limitations. By 2030, governments and industry should implement a demonstration and deployment strategy that enables SAF production to move beyond purely biomass-based methods, incorporating more carbon-efficient synthetic production techniques.
• Goal 4: In 2025, launch several high-reward experimental demonstration moonshot programmes to enable the focus on, and scale-up of, the most viable transformative technologies by 2030.

The report says goals 2 and 3 can be achieved with minimal new technology but require “robust and clear” market signals and swift policy action, whereas goals 1 and 4 “demand immediate efforts to push the boundaries of technology, creating new opportunities from 2030”.

Growing awareness and commitment to action are encouraging, believe the authors of the report. “Still, it is essential to match those professed concerns with decisive interventions over the next five years to create a credible path to net zero aviation by 2050,” they add.

The Aviation Impact Accelerator is a global initiative that brings together more than 100 experts from across the aviation industry to accelerate the sector’s transition to net zero emissions. Its goal is to develop interactive tools and models that assist stakeholders – governments, industry and the public – in understanding and exploring pathways to sustainable aviation.

“AIA modelling has drawn on the best available evidence to show that there are major challenges to be navigated if we’re to achieve net zero flying at scale, but that is possible,” said Eliot Whittington, Executive Director at CISL. “With focus and a step change in ambition from governments and business, we can address the hurdles, unlock sustainable flying and in doing so, build new industries and support wider economic change.”

Photo (University of Cambridge): Prof Rob Miller and King Charles III at the Whittle Laboratory facility

Christopher Surgenor

Editor

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