UK aviation group plots route to net zero in updated decarbonisation roadmap

UK cross-industry group Sustainable Aviation has released an updated version of its decarbonisation roadmap for the sector to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 based on several potential scenarios. Its analysis shows that sustainable aviation fuel is expected to remain the single largest driver of emissions reduction, accounting for 65% of total aviation fuel use by 2050 under a central scenario. The target would deliver lifecycle emissions savings of around 80% and contribute around 31% of total decarbonisation. Further carbon reductions would be delivered through fleet renewal (20%), airspace and operational upgrades (4%), and a gradual moderation of demand growth (15%), with GHG removals (GGRs) accounting for the remainder. However, says the group, the reductions will require the right policy environment to be in place.

“With record numbers of passengers travelling through UK airports, our net emissions continue to fall, demonstrating that UK aviation can continue to grow, connect businesses and take people on holiday while reducing its impact on the environment,” commented Neil Robinson, Chair of Sustainable Aviation on the publication of the new Decarbonisation Road-Map.

The group says between 2005 and 2024, UK passenger numbers increased by 28%, while absolute aviation emissions fell by around 1%, with average emissions per passenger reducing by about 22%. Lifecycle emissions savings from the use of SAF had resulted in a net emissions fall of 2.5%.

“When including emissions from the UK Emissions Trading Scheme as a ‘net contribution’ towards overall UK emission reductions delivered through compliance beyond the aviation share of emissions under the UK ETS, this would represent a total net reduction of nearly 13%,” says Sustainable Aviation.

The 2026 roadmap shows that while increased use of SAF remains the largest single contributor to emissions reduction compared to its 2023 edition, there is an increased role for greenhouse gas removals. This is primarily due to changes in their expected prices, with SAF having risen since 2023, while those for GGRs having fallen.

“This illustrates that the decarbonisation pathways are likely to evolve over time as technology and market conditions change,” says Sustainable Aviation.

The roadmap has adopted a more ambitious position on the contribution of SAF than the UK government is currently taking through its SAF Mandate. “[This] reflects the industry’s commitment to decarbonise as much as possible within the sector, an expectation that over time, a broader range of feedstocks will be available to meet the mandate and that voluntary purchases of SAF may occur above the mandated level,” it says.

On operational and air traffic management improvements, Ian Jopson, Director Sustainability at air navigation services company NATS, commented: “While some elements of the roadmap will take time to mature, airspace modernisation is already enabling measurable benefits. More efficient flight paths are reducing fuel burn and emissions today, and maintaining momentum will be vital to keeping aviation on track for net zero by 2050.”

Adds the roadmap report: “Airspace modernisation is a critical enabler of aviation’s future – supporting growth, improving reliability and reducing emissions today while other decarbonisation solutions become available.”

The roadmap predicts that aircraft already in service or under construction will deliver around 10% of total decarbonisation by 2050. The next generation of aircraft under development are estimated to deliver 25% efficiency improvements compared to the aircraft they replace, contributing to a further 10% of total decarbonisation by 2050. Hydrogen is still expected to play a significant role in reducing aviation’s impact in the long-term but the new roadmap has reduced its contribution up to 2050.

With the right policy support, says Sustainable Aviation, the industry can accommodate passenger growth of 1.7% a year to 2050, with an expectation that growth will be tempered due to increased ticket prices reflecting the cost of decarbonisation.

The industry remains committed to achieving net zero carbon emissions, said Robinson. “However,” he added, “we cannot reach this goal alone. To scale the solutions we need, and protect the UK’s global competitiveness, we urgently need the government to match our ambition with decisive policy action and investment certainty.”

The group calls on the UK government to:

• Focus on keeping SAF costs “as low as reasonably possible” by enabling access to global SAF supply and maximising SAF feedstock availability “within robust sustainability guardrails”;
• Support the development of a UK SAF industry via first-of-a-kind pathfinder projects by finalising the Revenue Certainty Mechanism and accelerating planning approvals for SAF projects;
• Prioritise the cost competitiveness of UK aviation by developing a robust commercial framework to scale domestic GGR supply at the lowest possible cost and ensuring access to verified international credits;
• Continue cross-party and regulatory support to maintain momentum on the airspace modernisation programme; and
• Maintain long-term funding for the Aerospace Technology Institute to sustain UK leadership in aircraft and engine efficiency development.

“Reaching net zero aviation requires action from the aviation industry, and also from parallel industries in next generation fuels and carbon removals,” said Duncan McCourt, Chief Executive of Sustainable Aviation. “We can deliver net zero aviation if we maintain the strong partnership between the aviation industry, parallel industries and government.”

Christopher Surgenor
Editor